3rd Annual RAISE Awards Analytics
The 2024 round hit record competitiveness (~7.2x oversubscribed), maritime projects rebounded sharply despite fewer applications, and planning grants surged at the expense of construction dollars — with growing signs USDOT is selecting for geographic balance over pure merit.
USDOT announced its 2024 RAISE awards on June 26th, and our third annual analysis finds a program that’s more competitive than ever (oversubscription ~7.2x) with a familiar roads-first tilt. The surprises this year: geographic distribution looks increasingly like USDOT is selecting for balance rather than pure merit, maritime projects rebounded sharply despite fewer applications, and planning grants surged to a historical high at the expense of construction-ready capital awards. Program parameters for 2025 are expected to hold steady.
Key takeaways
- More competitive than ever: oversubscription of ~7.2x and a success rate under 15% (falling to ~9% across the 16-year history of RAISE and its predecessors).
- Selecting for balance? Only 2 states (Washington and California) have repeated in the Top 10 across the last 3 rounds, while 22 different states have appeared — a possible headwind for applicants in states that have recently won big.
- Roads still rule: road, transit, and bike-pedestrian projects made up ~92% of awards.
- Maritime rebounded: 14 “maritime-related” projects won awards (vs. 4 in 2023) — and did so with 50% fewer applications than the prior round.
- Planning surged: planning projects hit a historical high at ~47% of awards. Against a long-run capital/planning average of ~70%/30%, the 2024 split was 54%/46% — a 30% reduction in capital awards and a 50% increase in planning grants.
The analysis
The usual caveat: USDOT provides only so much information and no more. It’s consistent on application and award data, but the finer project details — intended private beneficiaries, if any — are often tough to discern, and many applications aren’t public. To the analysis:
- RAISE remained very popular, with an oversubscription rate of ~7.2x and an application success rate under 15% (~9% across the 16 years RAISE and its predecessors have existed).
- Of the Top 10 awarded states, only 2 (Washington and California) have repeated Top 10s over the last 3 rounds, while 22 different states have appeared. Given the inherently political decision-making in these programs, applicants might weigh the added headwind of being in a state that’s been Top 10 for two consecutive rounds — it looks like USDOT may be selecting for balance rather than merit alone.
- Because RAISE is primarily a roads program, road, transit, and bike-pedestrian projects accounted for ~92% of awards.
- Maritime projects fared far better than last round, with (in our view) 14 “maritime-related” projects receiving awards, up from 4 in 2023. Not only is that a historical anomaly, it happened with 50% FEWER applications than last round. So much for our usual mantra that RAISE hates port projects.
- Planning projects amounted to ~47% of awarded projects — a historical high-water mark. Overall capital/planning averages are ~70%/30%, but the 2024 results were 54%/46%, meaning a 30% reduction in capital awards and a 50% increase in planning grants.
- This one is baffling, as we’ve been told many times that USDOT planning grants are NOT precursors of future capital funding. If true, those dollars could amount to nothing while good capital projects are ignored — which seems unwise.
- Planning for 2025: USDOT has previously advised little will change — same merit and technical components, same APP/HDC focus, same initial $1.5B funding — and committed to issue the 2025 NOFO by the statutory November 30 deadline.
For the maritime-segment deep dive — including the spread of the contested “dry ports” concept — see the companion piece, RAISE Awards — Maritime Analytics.
Related reading
This is policy and market intelligence, not legal advice. Thinking about a RAISE application? Talk to us about your project →